2019年3月22日星期五

Who contributed more to China's economy? Deng Xiaoping or Mao Zedong? (from Singapore Magzine, 1st ISSUE of ASIALINK)

The following paper is from a magzine locates in Singapore. This paper is a translation from the hot Chinese book published in Singapore in 2003, the title of this chinese book:
The Back View of A Huge Man: Defend Mao Zedong And Thinking On China Nowadays.
《巨人的背影——为毛泽东辩护及当代中国问题省思》
Author: Dr Dong Yuzhen

The 2nd veriosn of this book has been published in Aug 2018. The book can be refered:

http://nanyang.ws/books_details/mao_v2.htm

The 2nd verion, the Chinese title remain unchanged, but the English title renamed as:

The Back View of A Giant Man: Defend Mao Zedong And Thinking On China Nowadays.

DR Dong Yuzhen recieved a interview from the main TV, Channal 8 TV, Singapore Media.

Cover of 2nd version

In 1999, when Dr Dong first publish a long paper about Mao Zedong , a lot of Chinese scholar sent email to him to appreciate his paper. Some scholars said that they cannot keep crying when read this paper.



ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dong Yuzhen is the author of this book. It is his research result in past several years. This book give a different points of view on Mao Zedong and his time.



To understand this book, the author should be introduced first.

Dong Yuzhen grow up in a small and poor village in Shandong province of China. His education background is on engineering, and finished Ph.D in Tsinghua University. Then he joint a university in Singapore to do postal doctoral research. Dong also every worked in Shenzhen. The most successful special economic zoon. His dream from 16 years old, then he is a fresh student in University, his dream is to become a politician to reform China and her poor, uncultured country. From then on he always do social investigation with any spare time. His experience made him know well on country, big city, industry and education situation of China, especially with a international view.

If one scholar want to do research on Mao Zedong and his time, but without the wide experience of a big country as China, definitely, without a deep understanding on China, it is impossible to understand Mao Zedong and his time. The scholar from western country and big city of China cannot understand that why the farmers of China are grateful of Mao, although they are very poor then, even some of their relatives or skin member of their families dye of hungry because of Mao’s wrong policy during 1959-1961.

Dong Yuzhen believes that he can understand Mao, because he understand the farmers of China, as well as the people living in city.


This book include the chapters as: 1,Great progress on Economy, Education, Base construction, and humanitarianism care to China’s grass level. 2, Why Mao did not control the birth of baby and the relation of farmers with Mao. 3, democracy and dictatorship, 4, The Cultural Revolution and the China Intellectual. 5, Mao and personality cult. 6, Revolutionary contribution of Mao to the religion of Chinese. 7, Discuss the backout of the old wall of Beijing City. 8, Anti-Japanese War and War of Liberation... 9, Mao and Woman, 10 Deng Xiaoping’s wrong action after Mao,11,Judge the morality by motive, judge the capability by result. 12, How about China will be if without Mao in History, 13, Mao Time’s revolutionary contribution to art and traditional (Chinese) opera, etc.


The opinion in this book is much different from that of the China Communist Party. But the top leaders order a lot of this book, and invite the author to Beijing to discuss this book.


+++++++++++++++++the following is the paper published in Magzine Asialink, which was translated the part of 1st chapter of this book.



Looking back at the history of economic progress in modern China today, the view is unanimous among those in the Chinese and foreign media and scholarly research - that it was under Deng Xiaoping's leadership that china's economy was able to transform itself and to progress, The question is, is this viewpoint correct? In this issue, The Asialink takes a look at what a Singapore scholar has uncovered in the course of his research. This paper is from Dr. Dong Yuzhen's book: The View of a Huge Man's Back.





Who contributed more to China's economy? Deng Xiaoping or Mao Zedong?



1.     Outstanding economic achievements during Mao Zedong's era



That 'Mao did not understand economics' is almost a forgone conclusion, widely accepted by both locals and foreigners. While the writer thinks of Mao more as an economist, he will not defend his stand here. As a politician, party leader and head of the country, the central question should be whether there has been any major economic and other accomplishment during Mao's time. Outright criticisms or to deny Mao of his economic achievements because of a one- time slip is not being objective.

Likewise, it is hasty and irresponsible to describe Mao as an "economic disaster'' or as "blocking the economic progress of China''. As China's leader, Mao had early on identified the peasant as the root problem in C h i n e s e society. In response, he initiated a series of "land revolutions", which represented a watershed in the development of China's economic society. These reforms made it possible for the peasant to own the land he tills, greatly liberalized agricultural productivity, and also empowered the largest community in China by giving them land ownership. The upshot and significance of this effort alone far surpassed any single economic reform, such as today's market economical- reform. Especially important was that Mao had, through rural reforms and violent revolution, truly consolidated the country by thoroughly eradicating the widespread illegitimate power of local authorities, including local economic hegemony, local militias and political strongholds, as well as secret society organizations.

Cultural and economic exchanges between the various regions and ethnic communities were encouraged to foster a conducive internal environment for good governance, enduring peace and economic progress. In addition, a highly efficient and corrupt-free multi-level government organization was created by Mao after 1949 to spearhead China's economic development. The establishment of the planned economy system brought together limited resources for more lofty goals and also sanctioned the development of the requisite primary and heavy industries, as well as other enterprises   like scientific research, education and healthcare. Mao   was unprecedented in strengthening mass mobilisation and inter- community relations: he also created a strong societal foundation and the impetus for the development of the economy and various social projects. Although the planned economy system   had been abandoned. the major accomplishments in the economy, science and education in the post 1949 period were indisputable.

In the early days of P e o p l e s ' R e p u b l i c China, China did not have any well-established industry except for some textile and light industry machinery in the eastern and inland regions. Even lamp oil had to be imported. After twenty-seven years of rapid industrialisation, China had finally established a comprehensive industrial framework. In 1952, industry and agriculture accounted for 30 and 64 percent of gross national product respectively (no concise information exists for 1949, but the figures were certainly worse). By 1975, this ratio had been turned around, with industry contributing 72 percent of the GDP and agriculture merely 28 percent. Under Mao's leadership, China's gross value of industrial output had grown thirty times. Even during the ten years of the Cultural Revolution, gross industrial output value had also tumbled along, rising from RMB140.2 billion in 1965 to RMB320.7 billion in 1976. Second-generation leaders and Chinese economists, however, had denounced such remarkable regress as "stagnant'' and   "economy on the verge of collapse". Meanwhile, signs of "economic breakdown'' in Mao's time including inflationary prices, mounting unemployment and worsening balance sheets were virtually non-existent, thereby prompting one to wonder if economic disintegration is everywhere. Following are growth figures of the key industries in China:

From 1952 to the end of the Mao era (1978 as the cut off date, because the period between 1976 and 1978 is the natural extension of Mao's economic era. Most of the large-scale construction and heavy industry projects during his era also went into operation prior to 1979), steel and iron production rose from 1.4 million tones to 3l.8 million tones, while coal production rose from 66 million tones to 617 million tones. Likewise, cement production soared from 3 million tones to 65 million tones, while timber production increased from 11   million cubic meters to 51 million cubic meters. In the same period, electric power rose from 7 billion units (kilowatt-hour) to 256 billion. Crude oil production rose from virtually nil to 104 million tones. Chemical fertilizers soared from 39,000 tones to 8.693 million tones; farm chemical production soared from 2,000 tones to 530,000 tones.

Meanwhile, China had emerged from having nothing, to carving out a reputation in large-scale aviation, astronautics and nuclear energy and the establishment of all round military systems. Its achievements in these areas therefore cemented its position as a powerful nation. Until Mao's death, China has already developed from an agricultural nation to an industrial giant with jet planes, launch rockets, nuclear powered submarines and complete industrial setup, which could never be achieved using agricultural machinery. In l 976, China was ahead of other developing countries in terms of the degree of industrial development, technical expertise and development capabilities, and in some aspects even approach the levels of the developed nations. China's economic ranking has jumped from 13th position to the sixth in 1976 (foreign scholars generally agreed on this, despite some contention on the exchange rate.

This ranking however is not implausible if one considers the value of the currency. One only needs to study the global prices of the prevailing output from various core industries such as energy, timber, metallurgy and agriculture to understand the dependability of these figures.)

In terms of essential infrastructure, China has built over 800,000 km of public roads (excluding the non bitumen paved roads in the rural villages throughout China) and over 20,000 km of railroads. A large part of the railroads run through mountain ranges and the Gobi desert, thus ending the days when there were no railroads in Yunnan (except for a narrow railroad in the early period), Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Qinghai, Fujian, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Hetao plains. (In the immediate post- liberalization years, the railroad in Gansu only stretched up to Tianshui. Thereafter, it was extended to Lanzhou, and another Lanxin line was built). In the area of water conservation, management of the Changjiang River was primarily completed during the Mao era. More than 50,000 reservoirs were created.

Of the 31 mega reservoirs with capacity of 2 billion cubic meters of water or more, thirty were completed after l 949. The management of Huai River alone had involved the construction of 3,400 reservoirs (today it is a massive expense even to build 3,400 standard-size swimming pools). These accomplishments, thus, set the stage for Mao's peaceful development of China.

The end of the Cultural Revolution basically heralded the introduction of compulsory education. As much as five percent of the GDP was allocated to education for the establishment of thousands of tertiary institutions as well as a comprehensive elementary education system (Fund allocation for education after reformation in China has never crossed the global average of three percent. Repeated calls from the NPC (National People's Congress) representatives to the Chinese government had gone unheeded.) During the Cultural Revolution, the issue of children not being able to afford school was basically non-existent. In contrast, this problem became much worse in the later period (during the revolution feudalistic attitudes, not financial issues, explained why some peasants did not send their daughters to school.

Several girls in the writer's hometown, including his sister, were caught in this predicament).

In 1975 the percentage of school- going children even hit a historic high of 96.8 percent. Nevertheless, the percentage has hovered below this level in the subsequent years following Mao's death, until 1987 when it rose to 97.2 percent. Likewise, the percentage of graduating students from junior middle schools in 1975 was 60.4 percent; this percentage was never replicated in the subsequent years. The highest percentage in the last twenty years was only 50.7 percent, in 1998 (This was evident in the writer's hometown, where there were more than ten high school graduates in   1976; thereafter the number became fewer and fewer). In l 976, students comprised 22.4 percent of the overall population in China; this percentage increased to a record high of 22.7 percent in 1977, and then trailed off in the years after. The highest percentage was next recorded in 1998, but at 17.3 percent, it was only a   little higher than the l 5.7 percent recorded in 1966, the start of the Cultural Revolution.

During 1976 and 1977, the number of primary and secondary school students reached 150 million and 67.799 million respectively, the highest in Chinese history. These record high figures were never matched up in the years after. The problem of children discontinuing their studies because of the inability to pay for the school fees was never fully resolved after the liberalisation. Meanwhile, the proportion of students moving on to the next grade during Mao's era was the highest among the developing countries, a testimony to Mao's commitment to improving the overall wellbeing of the Chinese and also to the high level of equality in the Chinese society. In contrast to the 'privileged' form of education today, this was indicative of higher moral levels, and the contrast became even more apparent in the context of the divergent economic development. In the early years of the liberalization and reformation, businessmen from Hong Kong and other countries were generally concerned about whether it was possible to find qualified manpower in mainland China (they all thought that China was like Indonesia and Philippines). At the same time, Chinese officials and scholars were also making absurd conclusions, attributing the lack of qualified manpower in China as the obstacle to attracting foreign investments to the country.

Nonetheless, first time foreign venture capitalists were surprised to find many locals with high school qualification, which was unthought-of in other developing countries. Although university education was severely affected following the cancellation of university entrance exams during the Cultural Revolution, this should not be used to undermine the noble accomplishments of elementary education. It was an even greater mistake for those who felt that the revolution had eliminated the opportunity for learning. Except for the first two years of the revolution, the impact of politics on education (including most of the high schools) had been minimal.

Yet another major accomplishment in the Mao era was the setting up and expansion of large-scale research institutes to facilitate the overall development of scientific research and design in China (conservative estimates put the figure at over 3,000 institutes).Only the US and Russia had such large scale scientific research systems; these systems were virtually absent in other developing countries. These institutes played an indispensable role in the absorption of imported of technology, nationalization of facilities and spare parts production, as well as the study of global high-tech industries. Without them, China would not be able to build superior civilian and military industries within the twenty to thirty years after liberalization.

People's Communes in cities and counties built hospitals and created a group of family physicians' throughout the rural villages (this is a globally unique and worthy achievement). Urban residents enjoyed free medical services, and villagers paid a pittance for consultation, while treatment cost for common ailments was only equivalent to the price of a few eggs. As a result of the comprehensive healthcare system, Chinese males and females were able to live longer, to an average of 66 and 69 years old respectively- almost the highest among the developing countries. This was attributed to the humanitarianism ideals of the Chinese government and its administrative structures during the Mao era. The overall humanistic benefit to the Chinese society, hence, should not be undermined just because of a few instances of human rights violation in the course of political struggle.

Notably, China made these accomplishments all on its own, in a hostile, war-filled global environment. At the time of Mao's death, China had no external debts and no inflation, which were uncharacteristic of developing countries. The era even left behind massive foreign exchange reserves; as at   1977 China had 12.8 million ounces of gold reserves and U5$2.345 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves (please note that in the 1970s prior to Mao's death, China also imported aircrafts and industrial equipment worth billions of dollars), thus creating a fertile ground for the large scale technology adoption by Hua Guofeng and Deng Xiaoping.

  Even Deng acknowledged that, "Despite the many follies we have committed in the last thirty years, we did lay a foundation as far as the agriculture industry and scientific technology are concerned. In other words, we have carved out an advanced position for the Four Modernization'', "in brief we have created the material basis for the Four Modernization'', and "although we have committed blunders with Socialism, on whole we still changed the face of China''.





2nd issue of ASIALINK



Looking back at the history of economic progress in modern China today, the view is unanimous among those In the Chinese and foreign media and scholarly research - that it was under Deng Xiaoping's leadership that China's economy was able to transform itself and to progress. The question is, is this viewpoint correct? In this issue, The Asialink continues to look at what a Singapore scholar has uncovered in the course of his research. This paper is from Dr. Dong Yuzhen's book: The View of a Huge Man's Back.



Who contributed more to China's economy? Deng Xiaoping or Mao Zedong?



2. The Significance of Socialist Workforce Deployment System



If truth were told, economic growth data during the Mao Zedong era did not reflect the genuine economic activity; it merely reflected a part of it. The huge economic sector that was missing was the cost of labor.

For instance, to build a dam at the low-lying area of North China Plain, neither explosives nor machinery were needed; only volunteer labor from the masses was necessary.

Therefore, construction cost of this dam is equivalent to zero. There was no way this activity could be reflected in the economic statistics of that time.

Railroad construction was another unique example. To have an average 20,000 km of railroad constructed on difficult terrains, the scale of each project was unimaginable. However, it was the trained railroad soldiers who undertook construction works at that time. Therefore, the cost of these constructions was zero, and the quality and progress of these projects were attained with the lowest possible investments. Such constructions on tough terrains had claimed quite a number of soldiers' lives.

During the Mao Zedong era, minimal cost of labor was essential to ensure funds were accumulated for the development of heavy industry. The deep sense of patriotism of the people helped to ensure efficiency and quality of project constructions at that time. On the other hand, given ever-evolving technology in present times, it is ironic that present-day China has constructed numerous projects that looks good on the surface, but cannot last for long. A simple examination of the quality of projects built during the Mao Zedong era, for instance the Nanjing Yangtze Bridge, revealed the success of national and local constructions of that time.

For now, we ret-urn to the topic, what does "incomprehension of economies'' mean? lf we use rate of economic growth to gauge whether a leader understands economics, then the annual double-digit growths of China under the leadership of Mao Zedong (excluding factors like economic activities associated with zero cost of labor) would be concrete evidence that Mao Zedong was a great economic leader.

With his wisdom and experience of living in olden China, it is impossible for Mao Zedong to have no knowledge of concepts like market economy and stock markets.

However, he sought to find a new path of economic development. For this article, this path shall be termed "Socialist Workforce Deployment System'' developed based on policies. The characteristic of a Socialist Workforce Deployment System is being human resource and empowerment. It capitalizes on subjective initiative of humans to propel economic development. It does not deny the power money, but also does not see it as a means to purchase or stimulate labor", it merely sees money as a means to allocate resources. In a market economy system, humans are similar to all other means of production; they merely form a part of production costs. On the other hand, Socialist Workforce Deployment System shows respect for humans.

Then again, to realize a Socialist Workforce Deployment System would require an unique environment, which includes: a band of leadership with high principles to inspire united oneness and awareness of the shared common good, towards a definite development goal, and a common belief to transform the will of the individual into the will of the group.

In contrast, conditions to realize a market economy are simpler, that is to create an environment of fair competition for individuals to realize their ambitions. 

Under the leadership of Mao Zedong, callous contribution of self by reached a record high, even though there was absence of material incentives. This is an achievement that other leaders could not match up to.

Although a Socialist Workforce

Deployment System would not be practical in present times; this is no reason to negate the success of it in the past. Ultimately, Mao Zedong created an environment suitable for the development of a Socialist Workforce Deployment System, and achieved brilliant results. The realization of Mao Zedong's economic ideals founded new thinking for human development.

For instance, even with extremely weak foundations for industrial and technology, China could still launch a man-made satellite successfully within ten odd years, and only took nine years to complete proto-type unit of hundred-tone class Yun-10 commercial planes. Conversely, even a market economy with an average foundation and the importation of technology, one could still not on its own produce a locally manufacture automobile.



2.     Choices and Influence of Economic Development Strategies



During the Mao Zedong era, under harsh uncooperative, even hostile international environment, the sole strategy left for a sizeable nation like China was to prioritize development towards heavy industry and to improvise substitution import goods. Without the foundation laid by heavy industry development during the Mao Zedong era, subsequent development of the light industry, especially the durable consumer goods industry, would not have been possible. The Chinese state, then would have no choice but to fork out huge sums of foreign currencies to purchase expensive power plant equipment, huge engine beds, mining machinery and heavy- duty trucks. Conversely, the importing of production lines for color TVs and refrigerators would have become empty fulfillment. One significant example was the "leap forward to Overseas'' project, spearheaded by Hua Guofeng and key second-generation Chinese leaders, and represented by first phase of construction of BaoSteel (expended USD l 7.8 billion; figure obtained from relevant newspaper report in Shanghai when first phase of construction of BaoSteel went into operations). This project exhausted the entire foreign currency reserve of China and led to enormous financial deficit. It almost killed the Chinese economy that was still rather healthy after the "Great Cultural Revolution'' ended.

Furthermore, part of the foreign reserve that was exhausted was foreign exchange earnings accumulated through state frugality during the Mao Zedong era.

Without the huge accomplishments attained during the Mao Zedong era in areas like transportation in the Mid-Western region, energy resources, raw materials and military industries, present-day China would face an even more pressing problem of unbalanced regional developments.

Purely infrastructure alone, like transportation facilities in the complex terrains of the Mid-western region, would be enough to make Deng Xiaoping's reforms pale in comparison.

The "unilateral'' policy of friendship of China towards the Soviet Union received numerous censures from subsequent generations. However, an inspection of the assistance and influence of the Soviet Union towards 156 projects in China then was enough to provide justification.

During the short alliance with the Soviet Union, socialist countries of Eastern Europe, like the Soviet Union, East Germany and Czechoslovakia, adopted responsibility of helping China lay the preliminary foundation for industrialization. The l56 projects belong mainly to the heavy and the military industries. For example, a RMB 600 million heavy-duty primary machines factory constructed in Tsitsihar, and a series of similar heavy machinery factories (construction of such factories were a lot harder than the construction of other "associated'' computer factories and home appliances assembly factories). The establishment of these factories not only propelled China to the advanced ranks of machinery tool manufacturing after China was liberalized, it also played a crucial part in basic skills development, knowledge impartation and cultivation of talents in China.

Today, following absolute domestic production of numeric control systems, the machinery tool industry of China is almost at par with advanced countries like Japan, America and Germany; without the foundation laid earlier, current domestic manufacturing of numerically-controlled engine beds and processing centers would be unimaginable.

During the establishment of large- scale imported projects like Shanghai BaoSteel- Japan merely shipped several refurbished second- hand equipment to China. On a similar note, America has to date been unwilling to sell advanced equipment to China, not to mention military industry equipment and the transfer of technology. Hence, it seems clear that without the short alliance with the Soviet Union, China would have faced even greater difficulties in rapid development of its national industries. In developing countries throughout the world, excluding the Soviet Union and the different developed countries, China is the only country that has the ability to construct a gigantic modern automobile factory based solely on its own industrial strength (Second Automobile Work - (which became Dong Feng Motors) was constructed in 1969, assembled its first automobile in 1975, installed an overall 4000 sets of new equipment, 300 production lines and 117 automated assembly lines, and ranks third in the world for truck- producing capacity. By simply looking at its speed of construction and degree of automation, one can easily refute the fallacy stating that nobody was engaged in productions and scientific research during the "Great Cultural Revolution").

Without the help of the Soviet Union in constructing the Harbin boiler-making plant, electrical machinery plant and steam turbine factory, subsequent large and middle- scale power equipment enterprises, for instance Sichuan Dongfang Power Equipment Group, would not have grown so rapidly. Similarly, capacity for construction of large-scale power plant equipment in China would not have been established so quickly either. Ultimately, the production of such equipment encompasses nearly all types of processing skills available in the mechanical industry. In the late 80s, the Harbin boiler-making plant was able to use a blueprint from America to construct a jumbo 600,000 kW power-plant boiler. The success of this is undoubtedly closely linked to the foundation laid earlier. Besides, it also serves as proof of the world- class standard of the Chinese welding expertise. The Dongfang Power Equipment Group can now manufacture 600,000KW large- scale steam turbine sets, signifying that the power equipment domain of China has at length achieved global first-class standard.

Although China has not grown that rich as to ignore price differentials of several-fold, certain Chinese electric companies are still continuing to relentlessly purchase Japanese power plant equipment priced several-fold higher, and they are not doing so solely due to technological disparities. Then again, with the completion of the 600,000 kW large-scale units in China, technical disparity between large-scale power plant equipment in China and Japan would close the technological gap even further.

One thing for sure, the economic policies and political context of the Mao Zedong era helped a poor nation like China accelerate fundamental capital accumulation.

For market economy countries, this would have required a longer time, even up to a century. Subsequently, China was able to develop and expand its major industries. Even today, when China has achieved liberalization for over twenty years, private Chinese enterprises are still unable to undertake commercial risks in the heavy industry domain (especially in the domains of fundamental equipment and raw materials).

Although South Korea has created a "Hanjiang Miracle'' by growing into one of the four Asian dragons in just 30 odd years after the Korean War ended, and the production tonnage of its ship-building industry has become world first, its turbines for large-scale ships are still dependent on Japanese imports. On the other hand, China possesses the ability to manufacture turbines for all variety of ships (from torpedo speedboats to l0,000-ton ships and nuclear-powered submarines) right back since 1976. The modern heavy industry of South Korea has gained knowledge of manufacturing electric locomotives; however, its key technologies are still all imported. In contrast, China possesses the complete independent capacity to manufacture locomotives. Although its variety and technical levels are still lagging compared to the different developed countries (like Japan, France and Germany), when assessed from a global perspective, China still stands at a higher level.

When viewed from a global angle, the industrial scale, level of technology, and research and development ability of China in 1976 were still the highest among developing countries, even close to the standards of developed countries in certain domains.

The gap between China and the other Asian dragons rapidly widened only in the later part of the 70s, when computer technology and micro-electrical industries developed swiftly, and there was widespread use of large and middle- scale integrated circuits in industrial domains like electrical appliances, time pieces and automated controls.

Especially in the beginning of the 80s, the industrial revolution, characterized by personal computers and omni-directional applications, intensified the disparity. Needless to say, the main reasons why China could not catch up with its counterparts was because the light industry domain of China, which deals primarily with consumer goods, has insufficient trades, the relevant domains did not have sufficient technical preparations, there was a lack in operations concept for consumer goods, the system lacked flexibility, and foreign countries were imposing blockades on Chinese technology (Particularly serious in the IT domain. For example, when 1024- resolution computer monitors were extensively used in America, the National Defense System of China still had to secretly purchase these monitors from Hong Kong).

Even though South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have achieved huge success in the semi-conductor domain, none of these countries possess an independent capacity to develop the semi-conductor industry and the principle skills foundation. This is exactly the edge held by economic giants like America that is hardest for other nations to surpass or even match up to. However, in the early 70s, China had already independently developed ion implantation machines (developed by Academia Sinica of Metallurgy in Shanghai) needed for the manufacturing of integrated circuits, and was able to export them to Japan. China depended on its own expertise to construct its early semi-conductor industry; it took care of the entire process from pulling unit crystals and manufacturing equipment, to manufacturing integrated circuits and accumulating talents and knowledge. Besides China, other countries that held such abilities back then were only America, Japan and the Soviet Union.

Regrettably, when the Chinese finished their tenth pie and were no longer hungry, they cleanly forgot about the merits of the previous nine pies consumed. Similarly, when retired workers of state enterprises could not claim their retirement ns due to problems facing their enterprises, have the Chinese government and people cleanly forgot-ten about the past contributions of these workers? It is precisely this group of people who had, under the leadership of Mao Zedong, disregarded personal rewards and contributed to high national funds accumulation, thereby resulting in magnificent success of China's industrialization today, and laying of a solid foundation for abundant supply of consumer goods.




2019年3月10日星期日

针对中美贸易战的中国策略

该文最先于2018-06-25发表于公众号南洋智库


针对中美贸易战的中国策略
新加坡南洋出版社社长,战略与产业咨询专家  董玉振博士

当前些日子传出中兴公司按照美方要求进行改组董事会,董某心里真的有点不是滋味,感觉这盘棋哪里有点问题。这个节骨眼上,大幅度让步救中兴是否为明智之举,值得琢磨。毛主席说:以斗争求团结则团结存,以退让求团结则团结亡。这次的中兴问题开始就知道不仅仅是因为中兴犯错的问题,是美国特朗普集团要阻挠中国发展的大背景下的一个事件。对越来越可能发生的中美贸易战,中国有必要做个通盘的策划,虽然中美两国都有好棋和杀着。
这几天不断有网友留言要我谈谈看法,这么大的事,我当然不会视而不见。但这两天把《巨人的背影》的包装盒子和精装烫金设计部分全部发给印刷厂,终于可以抽空写下这个话题,再提升一下,就是在这个很可能要发生的贸易战中的中国策略。

关于对特朗普集团个性的分析,很多文章都提了。对此人不可用让步来解决。商人本性,再加上一群愤青幕僚,他们的要求很简单,就是中国永远做产业链中低端环节,贸易逆差只是一个问题,也是个藉口。正因为特朗普是个商人,中国要想止战,就要让他看清楚美国的利益风险和中国的决心。




策略一:一次性解决类似中兴事件的策略——彼此都有命门在对方手里

美国对付中兴仅仅是因为卖给伊朗有美国原件的设备。这点有点霸道。伊朗每年进口那么多电视机、电脑、苹果手机和平板、电动玩具、汽车、飞机、机床,可以说,这些商品里很多都有美国元器件,可为什么偏偏制裁卖通讯设备的中兴?
好吧,中国只能以其人之道还其人之身。

美国不允许任何公司销售有美国元器件的产品给伊朗,同样地,中国也不允许任何国家销售军事类设备给台湾,美国是霸道,中国维护的是主权,有更高合理性。
美国卖给台湾的军火中是否有中国的原材料和零部件?肯定有,至少中国稀土是需要的。

中国以此为借口,停止对美国出口稀土。实际上,美国不少集成电路产品是中国信息工业的必备配件,如果任由美国这样对付中兴,他也一定找藉口来对付华为和联想。因此,美国找到了中兴的命门,稀土则是抓在中国手里的美国高科技工业和军事工业的命门。

前些日子有报道,日本发现巨量稀土矿藏。但日本发现的这个含有稀土的土层在南鸟岛以南2500公里的海床上。离日本本土4000公里以上,在巴布亚新几内亚的东北方向,那里的海洋比南中国海更深。海底肯定资源丰富,正如南中国海的石油,但开采的技术难度和成本将远远超过陆上矿藏开采。也许,真正商业化已经是十年以后的事了。
董某甚至怀疑,日本放出这个风声是为了让中国加快稀土出口,至少不再把稀土当成武器。看来已经麻痹了一批中国网友。

十年时间够了,对中国来说,只要再抓住十年时间大幅度投资于短板的产业,并采取一些非常手段(小声点),十年后中国公司就可以获得稳定的供应链支持而不受国际政治的影响。

因此,中国应该非常明确地告诉美国,由于美国对台军售和军事合作,中国将停止稀土供应。并对其它国家的出口量做严格控制,以避免转卖美国。

中国有必要和美国达成某种默契,美国可以其国内法来阻止某个中国公司在美国销售,就是不论何种情况下,不能以中断供应链的方式来制裁中国公司。如果美国不同意,中国应立即停止稀土销售。中国死一个中兴,美国死掉一大片。中国减少稀土出口不会对就业和GDP造成什么影响,但如果美国要禁止向中国的几大芯片大客户停止出口,美国自己的这些公司将面临重大损失,毕竟中国这些大客户不是一般的大,都是动辄几亿美元的开销集中在几个美国供应商那里。
中国以稀土作为武器,该拿出来在美国愤青官员面前晃一下了。


策略二:立法豁免对关系国计民生外国知识产权的无条件使用权

对关系国计民生的技术,如果一旦出现国外封锁不再授权中国公司使用,将对中国的国计民生造成广泛的伤害,在此情况下,中国以法律形式允许和保护中国境内公司使用这些不被授权的技术的权利(或者去破解这些技术的使用权利)。

美国这次对付中兴,有两个软件有关的值得注意,一个是安卓操作系统,关乎中兴手机是否还能上市,一个是集成电路设计平台软件。当然,中兴产品很多,涉及到的美国软件技术肯定不止这些。

其中,集成电路设计平台不属于国计民生的,外国不授权使用,中国只好寻找其它途径。但安卓手机操作系统已经是中国应用最广泛的OS, 关乎几亿手机用户的利益。因此,中国应该立法允许中国公司在被外国敌意拒绝授权时,获得中国政府的批准予以使用而无需遵守相关的知识产权法规。(安卓是开源的,但Android商标属于谷歌,还有些最新版的打包应用,如果谷歌不授权,老版本手机估计也没人买了,这类关系国计民生的,还包括Windows系统,中国应立法允许中国公司在非常情况下使用破解版而无需遵守版权法律)

在这方面,其实印度在制药业方面已经有了先例,印度法律不保护药品的配方,只保护工艺。这给印度仿制药发展提供了大好机会,欧美大型药企一点办法也没有。对印度穷人来说,这是国计民生的事。欧美药厂的药品那么贵,作为落后的人口大国,印度采取了一个适合本国国情的知识产权保护法律。

策略三:中国不与美国比征税的规模,而是比质,质在哪里?

最近特朗普威胁在2000亿基础上再加2000亿美元中国商品作为征税对象,而中国自美进口只有1500亿美元。所以,拼规模,中国是肯定后继乏力的。中国从一开始就该拼质。正如两个人打架,大个子用个大扫帚把对那个小个子打得满身是血,而小个子其实不需要让对方破相,捏碎对方的睾丸就行了。

目前中国对美征税的第一大类商品是农产品。这是个很好的选择。不仅是特朗普的票仓,而且农产品一旦生产出来,成本已经产生,而又无法久存,长期保存的成本会很高。比如肉类,美国的牛肉猪肉的存栏不会随便就可以大幅度增减,这个生产规模在那里,如果中国减少进口,这些肉类在冷藏库里存放的用电量也是个持续增加的成本。别的国家市场规模一下子吃不下这么多农畜产品,所以,对准农产品是妙棋。商务部看来研究美国农产品下了一番功夫,尤其对准那些难以久存的,比如,干果可以存储时间较长,但最近美国国会质询那个愤青商务部长时提到,西海岸有140万箱樱桃准备发运中国,樱桃这类商品就是美国的命门,价值虽然不高,但影响力大,直接导致一批农场的破产(美国农业是靠贷款支撑)。

至于大豆类,中国要有置于死地而后生的决心。大家很多人都看过十几年前美国是如何耍手段来控制中国的榨油工业的。现在中国的榨油能力一半以上在外国人手里(尤其美国财团手里)。中国如果提高大豆进口关税,对于中粮这种有原料渠道的国企,或政府控制本国大豆流向,最后把国内美资控制的榨油企业逼到亏损甚至倒闭,正是一次机会。中国本土企业做好接盘的准备。

除农产品,中国对付美国的一个高质量方向,就是美国的战略性企业。
欧洲比较重视中小企业的发展,美国受大财团的操纵,长期重视跨国公司(有人做过研究,美国各个大公司的控制性股东的背后,最后都上推到几十个大家族),美国允许企业无限制资助院外游说集团和议员,实际上决定了美国的政权性质是由大企业操纵,甚至政府官员都会为美国跨国公司开拓国际市场去游说。可以说,今日美国的国力和影响力是建立在它的几百家世界一流的跨国公司的实力基础之上的。因此,削弱美国国力最有效方式就是削弱其跨国公司的实力。

非常有趣的是,美国跨国公司的强弱,其命门却不幸地掌握在中国手里——中国市场。甚至可以说,如果没有了中国市场,十年之内,美国大部分一流的跨国公司中的多数就会遇到麻烦,至少,这些公司和欧日韩澳加中同行竞争中,将彻底处于被动地位。没有了这块大市场的支撑,其资金积累和持续研发能力都将成为问题,或者说,即使中国所有的鞋子袜子玩具全部失去美国市场,会影响就业,不会动摇中国的国本。只要中国的航天、汽车、航空、电子类大企业能生存下去,那么,中国一样可以成为经济强国。美国人必须穿袜子、玩玩具、买圣诞节礼物,他们只有花更多的钱去别的国家进口。

因此,认真选择美国在华有业务的公司,制定针对性的策略,就成了当前的急务。中国只要把100家美国跨国公司纳入到瞄准范围,并明确无误地告诉这些公司高层我们的计划,这些公司所代表的股东和游说集团就忙死了,他们会去死磕特朗普和国会。他们的股东是谁呢?华尔街的大财团和犹太人财经集团。
据网上报道,我国高层多次和高盛有密切的来往,并试图让这些美国企业高管去游说白宫,实际上,让利远远不如风险有效。如果中国告诉高盛“为了长期合作,请帮忙游说”,基本是没大用的。但如果是“中美贸易战爆发,贵公司在中国的义务可以停了”,高盛比中国还急,他们的对手如德银、瑞士信贷、汇丰等随时准备占领高盛留下的机会。不要指望商人看面子和交情照顾你的国家利益,那根本不现实。资本家唯一最在乎的就是利润。其实,您以为高盛就看不到贸易不公平?高盛就一定期望中国强大吗?显然是幼稚的幻想。高盛很清楚,中国真强大起来,上海和香港加起来说不定哪天会拆华尔街的台,中国的投行逐渐强大,高盛未来的日子如何还难说。在中国这样的体制下,政府一个政策就足以把外国投行搞的没饭吃。

再比如,波音的主要竞争对手就是空客,波音飞机有1/4卖给中国。中国应该明确告诉波音,如果中美贸易战开打,中国将在未来十年之内不会给波音一架的订单。十年时间,足以大幅度削弱波音的研发资金投入,对波音的后续发展将是致命的。十年持续的制裁足以拉开波音和空客的距离。

中国在制裁美国公司时切勿算小帐。波音被制裁可能会影响中国一些配件厂家如西飞的订单,也可能影响舟山交付中心项目,但和这些比起来,波音的强弱才是关乎美国重大利益的事(长远看也关乎中国利益),在老大和老二争的时候,对手的强弱才是最核心的考虑。贸易战开打,杀敌八百自损500,是合算的。国家的真实实力是相对强弱,而不是绝对强弱。就好像今天中国的技术水平远远超越唐朝,但就国力,现在和唐朝还差得远呢。

对于苹果公司,同样不需要担心富士康和一些国内供应链,一方面,即使中国停止苹果产品销售,短期内它也只能找富士康生产,其它台湾和新加坡的其它代工企业,要么规模没这么大,要么生产线也在中国。而富士康短期内也只能在中国生产。这是苹果和富士康的无奈。但如果中国停掉苹果业务导致美国本土上万人失业,这才是它的利害所在。这与特朗普要扩大美国就业的思路是对立的。

中国对美国应该明确传递我们对付美国企业的目标,中美贸易战如同核战争,核武器的目的就是让对方知道您有能力和意志力置对方于死地,或者说,核武器的目的是避免使用核武器。但必须告诉别人,您有这个能力和决心。现在特朗普政府之所以敢完全不顾基本的礼节而以恐吓的手段对付中国和欧盟,就是这个政府团队缺乏对自己和对手的充分了解。或者对手没让他看清楚利害所在。

策略四:美国公司未必一定永远是美国公司,可以变为中国公司

友邦保险创立于上海,后来迁往美国成为美国公司。汇丰银行创立于上海,后来成为英国殖民统治下的香港公司,成为香港的发钞行,1997年又把总部迁往伦敦金丝雀码头,变成一个总部在英国的跨国银行集团。博通本来是家美国高科技公司,后来总部迁往新加坡,现在美国不让它吞并高通,它又考虑搬回美国。

可见,所谓的某个国家的公司,并非不可改变。资本的逐利本性决定了它的流动性。(教训:中国政府应该以法律形式明确规定,所有通过改制而成的民企,其总部必须永远在中国,政府应该设计一套方案来控制改制企业的外迁)

比如通用汽车,中国已经是它最大的单一市场,这类企业中国政府可以胡萝卜加大棒,双管齐下,实际上,任何一个在中国赚大钱,而在美国业务占比小于中国的非敏感类企业,都有可能在贸易战开打的大背景下不得不选边站:是选择中国市场还是美国市场。像特斯拉这种公司,因为他们所属的集团主要业务在美国,它的太空业务主要靠美国纳税人的钱养着,它是不可能离开美国的(一些网友为SPACE X发的个可回收火箭瞎嚷嚷什么马斯克一个私企干过几个大国,纯粹是无知,他从美国政府那里拿到几十亿美元的资助,这几年累计资助金额估计不会比中国政府给中国航天的拨款少多少)。博通可以迁往新加坡,中国一样可以逼迫一些中国业务占比巨大的企业如高通迁往香港。(华为海思的手机芯片不对外开放供应,是一个败着,任正非智慧一生,糊涂一事,他也有灯下黑的时候。华为应该重新评估海思的战略定位)


策略五:团结一切可以团结的力量,结成最广泛的统一战线

这是毛主席的策略。他老人家在玩战略上,这个星球上没有对手,咱们也就膜拜借用一下。(天才被傻子骂成笨蛋,也是奇葩)

特朗普政府堪称奇葩的一点是,他完全得慈禧太后的真传。当年在义和团运动的大背景下,排外情绪弥漫全国和朝廷,慈禧太后一气之下和全世界帝国主义国家决裂,勇气可嘉,结果把在华利益上有竞争关系的八个恶棍给团结在一起形成八国联军,让中国损失惨重。想起这事就禁不住对八个帝国主义骂个不停,但朝廷咋就不用点智慧呢?意气用事对国家太有害了。

特朗普上台,让我们见识了慈禧太后外交思路的现实版。

确实,二战后这几十年,美国在国际贸易上,对他的跟班小兄弟,确实做的不错,堪称老大哥的风范。特朗普上台后要改变也是对的,但需要讲策略。看到中国那个2025不爽,要对付中国也是对的(从美国人角度看),但万不该上来和全世界过不去,虽然全世界确实都在占美国的便宜。但美元可以割羊毛的情况下,总要给这群羊点草料。可人类社会根本就不是羊,个头长大了后才发现,他们随时会变成狼,中国的那个2025就是变成狼,不,是变成狮子的大概日期。
其实,欧洲,韩国,日本这些国家,只要给他们壮壮胆,他们随时都可能变成群狼。过去日本是没人给壮胆才被美国收拾。这次,中国,那个壮胆的大个子来了。从一开始韩国还老老实实配合特朗普,安倍也小心翼翼不敢得罪美国,但中国大个子一开始都怒目而对,全世界那些被美国吓得够呛的小羊们很快就找到了感觉,各个立马把埋没的狼性发挥了出来。

中国通过本来给美国的订单引导向其它国家的方式,是建立统一战线的最有效诱饵。美国和其它主要贸易伙伴关系的紧张也使得中国这个贸易伙伴变得更加重要,比如德国,美国对欧洲汽车征税,德国车企受伤最大,而中国市场就成了这些车企更关键和更要命的市场。
这个话题再扯就没边了。就此打住。这是个可以单独探讨的大话题。


小结:

中美这次的贸易冲突,早晚都会来,地球人都知道,老大面对一个冲劲十足的老二时,想让老大安心静观老二来取代自己的位置,那是异想天开。但不得不说,在过去三十年中,中国的运气实在太好了,海湾战争、南斯拉夫冲突、911和持续的反恐战争、还有像章家敦这样一大群整天唱衰中国的免费笨蛋给美国精英集团灌迷魂药,使他们相信中国问题缠身而放松警惕,让美国错过了对付中国的最佳机会。现在中美经济高度融合,中国的市场规模对美国企业来说已经大到不能倒的地步,美国试图砍掉中国大腿时,发现自己的也将血流成河。

商业社会的决定因素有两个:技术和市场。中国虽然还不能在所有技术领域拥有自主和竞争能力,但中国已经是世界最大的市场则成了商业社会的核武器级的决定性要素。因此,这场贸易战中,中国用好用足这个武器,就一定会是最后的胜者。


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为纪念毛泽东诞辰125周年献礼之作,曾被中央高层评估是否一字不改出版内部参考版,2003年第一版出版当年曾在新加坡引起轰动,新加坡电视第八波道、国家图书馆、华族文化节、95.8城市频道等都做了专访和专题演讲||《巨人的背影——为毛泽东辩护及当代中国问题省思》(第二版) 征订,复制下面链接:
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4ebf865d01030pf9.html